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22. Dezember 2012 6 22 /12 /Dezember /2012 23:56
'Bangladesh's economy may overtake West by 2050'
Sat, Dec 22nd, 2012 10:22 pm BdST
Dhaka, Dec 22 (bdnews24.com)–Economists have forecast that Bangladesh's economy might overtake the western countries by 2050, according to a report. 

At a time when the countries under the acronym BRICS are plateauing, the "new-wave economies", from Bangladsh to Mexico, are coming up fast - and could even overtake the west by 2050, the UK-based newspaper 'The Guardian' reported in an article published on Dec 18. 

BRICS is comprised of the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and are deemed to be at a similar stage of economic development. 

The Guardian's list of new-wave economies include Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, South Korea, Mexico and Argentina. 

The report states that they are big. They have young and growing populations. They have invested in infrastructure and education. And they are growing at the sort of rates that make them the envy of the recession-hobbled west. 

The paper admitted that many of these fast growing countries "not so long ago were rudely dismissed as basket cases" but were expected to "dominate the top 20" of the growth forecast for 2013. 

"While some new-wave economies, such as Vietnam, have been hard hit by falling western demand for their exports since the financial crisis of 2007-08, others have been sustaining strong growth rates. Bangladesh and the Philippines have been helped by remittances sent home from expatriates working overseas, the report highlighted," the report said. Strong domestic demand facilitated by large population has also contributed to the upsurge in growth in these countries. 

High Growth 

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), said: "There are countries beyond the BRICS that have quite strong long-term growth potential." 

Economists such as Hawksworth highlighted a number of key factors that made possible the new-wave economies to grow more quickly than the "mature countries of the west". 

"Firstly, they need sound macro-economic policies, including control of inflation and budget deficits. Secondly, they have invested in human capital, improving their educational standards, the paper said. 

These countries have been "able to import new technologies from the west", which made up for the lack of physical infrastructure and boosted productivity. A young and growing population has also added to their high growth rates, the report added. 

Jim O'Neill, of the Goldam Sachs, who for the first time coined the acronym of BRICS and had identified his "Next 11" group as its successor, chose many of the most populous countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. 

"Some of these emerging countries have good demographics, based on a growing and younger population than countries in the west," Hawksworth said. 

"They have a lot of potential to catch-up as long as they have broadly growth-friendly policies – a big if in some cases. They have the potential to absorb technology from overseas and can get rapid growth," he added. 

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